Wider trade stops
Near breakeven historically. The range still crosses zero, so it is not a proven edge.
Research · Open results
What the data
actually says.
A record of tested strategies, uncertain findings and ideas that did not survive trading costs. No cherry-picked winning screenshots.
Not a single
proven winner.
These numbers come from historical simulations, not real-money trading.
–Simulated trades
–Versions explored
–Stocks and funds
–Beat costs convincingly
–Years of daily prices
–Final exams on hidden data
–Adopted after the exam
–Live forward test
| Study | Mean net R | 90% range | Trades | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Awaiting verified data | ||||
A range that crosses zero is not evidence of a dependable edge. Many variants were explored, so an apparent winner needs more validation.
What costs do
to a strategy.
Change the modeled cost per buy or sell. This replays the historical study, not a brokerage account.
Historical study · Jan 2024 – Apr 2026 · 28 months · 22,106 simulated trades
Cumulative result, before and after modeled costs
Before costsAfter costs
0%0.05% (study)0.10%
At 0.05% per buy or sell, the study ends near −2,648 R.
Even a failed test
teaches something.
Each idea’s pass mark was written down before it ran.
Scout’s odds score
Higher scores did not pick better trades than lower ones.
Stocks in play
Only trading unusually active stocks did not survive costs.
Late-day pattern
Small losses on most trades once costs were counted.
Overnight drops
Buying stocks that opened lower showed no reliable edge.
The big screen
More than ten thousand pre-registered ideas across stocks, news, filings and crypto. None held up on years they had never seen.
Popular public bots
Dozens of free community bots, run in their own software. None made money on the newer data.
Chasing big moves
Buying right after a big jump did worse than random picks, in stocks and in crypto.
A few survivors
A handful of ideas beat random picks in both periods. Not proven yet; each gets one final clean test.
Earnings timing
Free sources rarely say whether results came before or after the market.